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    Transparent Peer Review By Scholar9

    AI - BASED STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR AGRICULTURAL CROP YIELD BEHAVIOUR AND RISK PATTERN ANALYSIS

    Abstract

    Agricultural crop yield analysis is a critical and challenging task in the day-to-day life. The traditional statistical models that combined with the machine learning and deep learning techniques are used to predict the crop yield values, but often they focus on only predicting the single crop, individual models, and predicting the accuracy values. This study enhances by using an AI based statistical learning framework, with multi crops to analyze the agricultural crop yield behavior and the identification of the risk patterns in multi crop by using the historical crop yield data. Three statistical techniques were used for the analysis of crop yield such as Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Quantile regression and Robust regression. The model's performance was evaluated using the symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), median absolute error (medAE), and the pinball loss. A Quantile based yield regime classification is implemented to identify the categorized crop yield behaviour into normal, good and bad regimes. A policy interpretation is also developed from the quantile regressions output, that converts the statistical classification into a meaningful AI decision support framework for meaningful agricultural crop yield analysis. These two approaches enhance the agricultural crop yield analysis using AI based statistical techniques. The obtained results show that the Quantile regression model has the lowest predictive error value (sMAPE = 74.80% and medAE = 0.59), outperforming the OLS value (sMAPE = 184.00%, MedAE = 73.63) and the robust regression value (sMAPE = 79.91%, MedAE = 0.83). As a result, by applying the quantile-based yield regime classification gives the output that 2,363 stress observations (bad yield), 15,352 normal observations (normal yield) and 1,974 high yield observations (good yield). These results are further translated into a policy interpretation for the agricultural crop yield. This study would not only enhance the approach of agricultural practices but also it enhances data driven decision-making and and interpretability for the crop yield risk analysis.

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    Nimeshkumar Patel Reviewer

    badge Review Request Accepted

    Nimeshkumar Patel Reviewer

    badge Approved

    Relevance and Originality

    Methodology

    Validity & Reliability

    Clarity and Structure

    Results and Analysis

    Relevance and Originality

    The study addresses an important topic related to crop yield analysis and agricultural risk assessment. The focus on interpretable statistical models for understanding yield behaviour across multiple crops is relevant for agricultural research and policy planning. The idea of integrating regression models with yield regime classification adds practical value. However, the novelty could be clarified more clearly in relation to previous studies that have already used quantile regression in agricultural analysis.

    Methodology

    The methodology is based on three regression approaches, Ordinary Least Squares, Quantile Regression, and Robust Regression. This comparative modeling approach is appropriate for agricultural datasets that often contain variability and outliers. The dataset used appears sufficiently large and includes several agronomic and environmental variables. More explanation regarding preprocessing procedures, feature encoding, and model implementation would improve methodological clarity and reproducibility.

    Validity and Reliability

    The study evaluates model performance using sMAPE, median absolute error, and pinball loss, which are suitable for regression analysis. The results indicate that quantile regression performs better compared with the other models. Nevertheless, the manuscript would benefit from additional validation procedures and discussion about dataset variability to strengthen the reliability of the findings.

    Clarity and Structure

    The manuscript follows a typical research structure and the overall organization is understandable. Figures and tables support the explanation of the framework. However, the language requires careful editing to improve grammar, readability, and sentence flow.

    Results and Analysis

    The results demonstrate that quantile regression better captures yield variability and performs more effectively than the baseline models. The yield regime classification provides a useful interpretation of crop yield behaviour and its potential policy implications. A deeper comparison with related studies would further strengthen the analysis.

    IJ Publication Publisher

    The manuscript presents a relevant investigation into agricultural crop yield behaviour using statistical learning approaches. The integration of regression based modeling with yield regime classification offers a meaningful perspective for understanding agricultural risk patterns. While the topic aligns well with current developments in agricultural data analytics, minor improvements in language clarity and methodological explanation would strengthen the overall presentation.

    Publisher

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    IJ Publication

    Reviewers

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    Nimeshkumar Patel

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    Ramesh Krishna Mahimalur

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    PRONOY CHOPRA

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    Niranjan Reddy Rachamala

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    Neelam Gupta

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    Paper Category

    Artificial Intelligence

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    Journal Name

    JETIR - Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research

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    p-ISSN

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    e-ISSN

    2349-5162

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