Paper Title
A DETERMINISTIC FORECASTING FRAMEWORK WITH CAUSAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Keywords
- deterministic forecasting
- causal scenario analysis
- intervention model-ing
- scenario planning
- performance evaluation
- investment analysis
Publication Info
Volume: 16 | Issue: 3 | Pages: 172-186
Published On
May, 2025
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Abstract
This paper presents a novel deterministic forecasting model for pre-dicting future business revenue over a certain horizon by incorporating causal "what-if" scenario analysis. Using monthly historical data on various business metrics, the framework builds a flexible, component-based forecast indepen-dent of any specific revenue model (e.g., applicable to subscription or ad-based businesses alike). The deterministic model captures causal relationships between business growth, goals, and revenue generation, allowing explicit simulation of interventions, such as feature launches, that boost business growth by a specified percentage. We detail the forecasting framework, causal modeling methodology, deterministic assumptions, and mathematical formulation of the model. An il- lustrative use cases demonstrate how different intervention timings and strengths produce adjusted revenue forecasts.
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