Projection of some Fertility Indicators of UP, India using MCMC Technique in Bayesian Procedure

Abstract

In the present paper we have projected the Age Specific Fertility and Total Fertility Rate of Uttar Pradesh using Gompertz model, assuming lower and upper asymptotes from the past estimates of Age Specific Fertility rate of Uttar Pradesh. Parameters of the model have been estimated using MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) Technique in Bayesian Procedure. We have assumed Non-informative prior distribution to implement the Bayesian approach for the parameter estimation.