Can system reliability be predicted from average component reliabilities?

Abstract

The paper reveals that a prediction of system reliability on demand based on average reliabilities on demand of components is a fundamentally flawed approach. A physical interpretation of algebraic inequalities demonstrated that assuming average component reliabilities on demand entails an overestimation of the system reliability on demand for systems with components logically arranged in series and series-parallel and underestimation of the reliability on demand for systems with components logically arranged in parallel. The key reason for these discrepancies is the variability of components from the same type. Techniques for countering variability by promoting asymmetric response through inversion have also been introduced. The paper demonstrates that variability during assembly operations can affect negatively the reliability of mechanical systems. Accordingly, techniques for reducing the variability of stresses during assembly operations have been discussed. Finally, the paper provides a discussion related to the reasons for the relatively slow adoption of domain-independent methods for improving reliability despite their numerous advantages.